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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

November 22, 2011

Week 11 Overview + Power Poll #6

The Producers
There are only two elite teams in the NFL: the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.  Sure, questions linger about the Packers’ defense and the Niners’ ability to play in a shootout, but the mark of an elite team is consistency and being able to dictate the style of play they want.  The reason the Packer defense hasn’t had to have a big showing and the Niner offense hasn’t had to explode is because both teams are in control of every game they play.

The Other Guys
There’s a sub-category of teams right below San Fran and Green Bay that alternately tantalize us and disappoint us from week to week:
  • The Falcons just haven’t put all their talent together yet.
  • The Saints still seem to be missing that bit of magic from their Super Bowl year.
  • The Lions are boom-or-bust.  They have wild comebacks and shootouts, but they ultimately lack consistency running the ball and stopping the run.
  • The Ravens look great at times but have lost to the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Titans.
  • The Steelers have lost twice to the Ravens.
  • The Giants were starting to put things together then lost two straight.
  • Conversely, the Cowboys seem to finally be putting all their talent to good use, but it still feels like the wheels can come off at any moment.
  • The Bears looked to be the one team ready to perhaps join the Niners and Pack, and then Jay Cutler goes down for the year.
  • The Patriots’ fatal flaw is their defense, and they also lack vertical explosion on offense.

Undeclared
Losing by a combined 14 points to the Steelers and Ravens doesn’t tell me the Bengals aren’t a playoff-level team.  It tells me they lost two close divisional games against strong opponents.  Judge dem Bengals only after they get another shot at both.

Wedding Crashers
The Bills might be the worst 5-5 team in history, and the Dolphins might be the best 3-7 team in history.  The wheels have really fallen off in Buffalo.

Stranger Than Fiction
Tim Tebow might be winning games, but this won’t last.  It’s kind of fun to watch, but eventually, having a fullback playing quarterback, the Broncos will get exposed.

Land of the Lost
It’s more of an indictment of Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offense than it is of their defense that they lost to Tebow and the Broncos.  New York only gave up 17 points.  It’s time for the Sanchize to start playing like a fifth overall pick three years into his career.

Everything Must Go
I have no idea who is going to win the AFC West.  The Chargers look terrible, the Broncos are playing college football, the Chiefs just lost their starting quarterback for the year, and the Raiders are starting Carson Palmer, who was on the couch a few weeks ago.

Bewitched
What happened to Sam Bradford?  I know he’s been dinged up and is in a new offense, but he’s been horrible.

Eastbound & Down
I think it’s funny that everyone was shocked that the Eagles fell to 3-6 because of how good they were supposed to be, and then the same people consider it a stunner when they beat the division rival Giants by one touchdown.



Week 11 Power Poll

1. Green Bay Packers (10-0)

Who else could be in this spot?

How good is their defense?  Good enough to have the Packers undefeated. 

2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)

They absolutely dominated the Cardinals, holding the ball for 44 of 60 minutes.  And if not for three missed field goals, they would have won this game even more handily.

3. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

This team fluctuates from week-to-week, but beating a good Cincy team without Ray Lewis speaks highly.  A huge showdown between the Harbaugh brothers (and the second and third ranked teams on my list, mind you) lingers on Thanksgiving. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)

A good time for a bye week with Ben Roethlisberger dinged up, the Steelers should be fresh for the stretch and should make a run at the one seed in the AFC with a soft remaining schedule outside.  The only true test is a road tilt at San Francisco.

5. New Orleans Saints (7-3)

I’d like to put the Texans or Bears here, but with their starting quarterbacks both gone for the year they barely belong in the top-12.  The Saints are flawed, but I guarantee they scare the wits out of every team they play. 

6. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)

This team has so many weapons; they’re kind of like a Ferrari that just needs an oil change.  If they can get everyone healthy, Miles Austin particularly, and on the same page, then they can beat anyone. 

7. New England Patriots (7-3)

The defense is continually a problem, but I feel like come the winter months of the season they will be a tough out, especially if they get some home playoff games. 

8. Detroit Lions (7-3)

With Ndamukong Suh, Calvin Johnson, and Matthew Stafford, they are definitely in the running for most fun team to watch, but they lack consistency.  They seem to love playing in shootouts, which might make them an upset threat against Green Bay, but ultimately I think this is a young team still finding its rhythm.

9. New York Giants (6-4)

They’re ahead of the Falcons and Raiders for essentially one reason: Eli Manning is better than Matt Ryan or Carson Palmer.  Once the Giants get back to full health they are another team that can beat anybody on a given Sunday.

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

I refuse to believe this team is worse than the Oakland Raiders.  They haven’t shown a whole lot to fall in love with, but they’ve navigated their way to a winning record and are in the thick of playoff contention.

11. Oakland Raiders (6-4)

The way they beat the Vikings is the model this team needs to follow on offense.  Pound the ball with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden when he gets healthy, and keep Carson Palmer around 25 throws per game.  Let Palmer take his deep shots, especially off play-action, and control both lines of scrimmage. 

12. Houston Texans (7-3)

I place them over the Bears because I honestly think Matt Leinart might be a little more ready than Caleb Hanie to take over NFL starting quarterback duties.  It’s really fortunate that Houston had a bye week for Leinart to get reps and get prepared and possibly bring Andre Johnson back into the fold.  It’s also nice they’ll face the hapless Jaguars coming up.  Having Arian Foster and Ben Tate and the #1-ranked defense to fall back on doesn’t hurt either.

--from @AdamHocking

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