Miami Thrice

How many teams tricked themselves into believing LeBron James would ride into their towns on his white horse and save the day?  At least six, and every team's fans likely had a scenario configured in their heads.  "OK, if we just trade Andrew Bogut, John Salmons, Luc Richard, and our next twenty first-round picks, we can get him!"  But in reality, LeBron could choose only one destination, and as free agent, that was precisely his right.

The pre-pubescent comments made by Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert serve to show exactly how valuable LeBron was to that team, and will be to his new team, the Miami Heat.  In Gilbert's rage he attempted to put up a tenacious front, but to anyone really listening, he was actually franticly waiving the white flag.  If anyone should understand that the NBA is a business, it's an owner.  Gilbert's reaction shows how deeply tied LeBron was to Cleveland, and just how transcendent a figure he really is.

I can't say that LeBron made the right decision yet.  I think he had to leave Cleveland; that team had too many inadequate players and big salaries, and the pressure of carrying the collective angst of the entire Cleveland population is something no athlete wants.  However, I am not convinced that the new Big 3 in Miami surpasses what could have been, had LeBron decided to join the Bulls.  But refreshingly, that type of speculation is over, and now it's time to examine what this threesome will really do together.

Not since Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal were on the Lakers have two of the top three players in the league been on the same team.  The Heat now has that combination in LeBron and Dwyane Wade.  Kobe and Shaq, however, never possessed a third option like Chris Bosh, who himself is a top-15 player in this league.  This Big 3 surpasses the Celtics' Boston Three Party that won the championship in 2008.  Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were stars, not superstars.  Kevin Garnett was a top-5 player when he joined the Celtics, but is now no longer near that status.

This big three is the more talented than was Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman, or the aforementioned Celtics.  This is likely the best big three since Magic, Kareem, and Worthy all played for the Lakers.

In Miami you could argue that all members of the Big 3 are just entering their primes.  James and Wade are already the best players at their respective positions, and though Bosh is perhaps not the league's best power forward, he has that potential, especially at age 25 with plenty of room to get better.

The true danger in discussing this big three is that by mentioning them all together you forget what these men have accomplished individually.  LeBron is the best all-around player in basketball.  His team in Cleveland would have been picking high in the lottery without him, and yet with him, they had the best record in the NBA two consecutive years.  He is the best passer in basketball, the best athlete in the league, and at age 25 is still improving.  He has the ability to be the greatest player of all time.

Wade is a clutch player, with great all-around skills, tremendous athleticism, and a knack for the clutch, which may be the only thing LeBron lacks.  Wade was the best player on his Heat team that won it all in 2006, and along with Kobe, is the gold standard at his position.  He can play off the ball and does not possess quite the ego that most superstars do.  He dragged his teams to the playoffs the past few years, as did James.  Wade may have been working with even less talent than LeBron and was still able to get his team to the postseason.

Outside of Pau Gasol, Bosh is the most talented post player in the entire league.  He is an active rebounder and good defender.  He has an array of post moves, range out to eighteen feet, and great athletic ability.  He has an easy going personality.  He led an undermanned Raptors team to the very edge of playoff contention this year.

Nobody knows how this triumvirate will work together on the court, but in terms of talent, no team can best the Miami Heat.  James and Wade are two of the very best transition players in the league.  LeBron will always find the open man, Wade can score at will, and Bosh is the offensive anchor in the post.  On every possession they will have three number-one options on the floor, and teams will not be able to double all three.  Defensively, Wade's and James' athleticism and activity should really cause problems for opposing guards.

One issue is how to get these three massive personalities on the same page, consistently thinking in terms of the team.  It is likely just a matter of time before Pat Riley eats Eric Spoelstra's face and takes over this juggernaut, but I think that would only add another massive ego to the pile.  If I were a Heat fan, I would want Riley as far away from the sidelines as Roman Polanski should be from a hot tub full of young women.

A more pressing concern is who will be placed around these three, and just how is that going to work.  Although Wade, James and Bosh have all offered to take less than max deals, they won't be shopping at thrift stores anytime soon, and are likely only going to sacrifice a few million dollars each.  That will leave the Heat about four or five million dollars to play with, allowing them to sign a veteran to the mid-level exception, and then will mostly bring in players for minimum salary.

I have heard Shaq's name pop up, but he does not want to take minimum salary or be overshadowed by three other mega stars.  I have also heard Mike Miller which makes more sense to me.  He is a shooter and complementary player; he would be a fit.  Rookies Jarvis Varnardo, Dexter Pittman, and DeSean Butler will likely all make the team.  Mario Chalmers is still under contract for the Heat, and is a decent young player.  To make room on the roster for LeBron and Bosh, former second overall draft choice Michael Beasley was traded to the Timberwolves for next to nothing.

And therein lies the problem.  Wade, Bosh, James and then Miller, Chalmers,  Pittman, Butler, and Varnardo?  The Big 3 is going to have to be immaculate to win a championship with this cast.  They will not get very good players to come there and play for the league minimum no matter how likely a championship is.  Players play to get paid, and the Heat have all their cash tied up in three guys.  The question then becomes, is this threesome good enough to do it, to climb the mountain alone?  You need Sherpas to climb Mount Everest, and they better not be rookies or dudes way past their primes.

Championship talk all boils down to this, can the Heat beat the Lakers next year?  Can they beat the Celtics or Magic?  I think if Boston is healthy and can get another quality year from Garnett, Allen, and Pierce, they could certainly beat the Heat in a playoff series given their edges in depth, chemistry, and experience.  I think the same can be said for Orlando.

Certainly the Lakers can beat this Heat team.  LA has made three straight Finals appearances and is not going to be deterred by a little star power.  Wade, James, and Bosh may be a little better than Kobe, Gasol, and Andrew Bynum, but not by much.  Kobe cancels out James or Wade, and Gasol is a better player than Bosh.  Then the Lakers have Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, and Steve Blake.  The Heat will have virtually no bench and little production outside the Big 3.  This will be a problem in the playoffs where defense gets turned up and teams that have great versatility and resourcefulness survive.

The past few years in the playoffs it is clearly important to have star power, but it is just as vital to have six or seven true quality players.  The Heat will likely have three super stars, one or two serviceable players, and the rest will essentially be scrubs.  The regular season may be a spectacle as the Heat march through the lackadaisical NBA grind, but when the playoffs hit, you need all guns firing, and you better have a lot of guns.  The Big 3 will all be heavily counted on every single game.  They have to produce all the time.  They will feel supported by each other, but say LeBron has an off night, Wade and Bosh will need to combine for seventy points to offset that.

If the Heat can somehow add three reliable veteran players that can contribute some consistent scoring, rebounding, and defense, then they will be right there competing for a title.  The problem is I don't think they have the money to bring that extra talent in, and ultimately this team will come up short until they can find a way to fill out their roster.

3 is the magic number, and this 3 will be incredibly exciting to watch.  Going to a Heat game will be like going to a Beatles concert, South Beach will be on fire, and this trio will account for some truly spectacular moments.  Still, there is not enough in Miami's cupboard to cook up a championship, not yet anyway.

--from Adam