NBA Crystal Ball

With busy personal lives and a preseason football overload, we had to take a little break, but now we're back.  Here's Adam's take on what to expect in the 2010-2011 NBA season.

Awards Section: OK, let's dive into the insanely premature awards section where I somehow determine who will have the best NBA Seasons, and then bullheadedly defend my predictions in the face of logic, reason, and other bullheaded people.

MVP: 

1. Kobe Bryant (Winner)- Call me a homer if you will, and you will, but there is a very good rationale for this.  Often the MVP goes to the best player on the best team as long as he is clearly alpha dog for his team, but since in South Beach LeBron James will no longer be "the man," he will not three-peat as MVP.  Kevin Durant will be right there, but his team will likely finish 5-10 wins behind a reloaded Lakers team featuring the healthiest Kobe in years.  In addition, Bryant is finally taking a summer to rest and rehab rather than play international ball.  I see the Laker's as a 60-win team this season; the only other team that may win as many games are the Heat because of their three MVPs.  Also, Kobe may get some votes as a type of lifetime achievement nod.
2. Dwight Howard- I think that the Magic are going to struggle a bit after the emotional damage they endured being ousted easily the last two years by the Lakers and Celtics.  They won't be as good of a team as the past couple years with a declining Vince Carter and an inconsistent Rashard Lewis.  That however, will allow Howard to step into an even larger offensive role, and given what he already does on the boards and defensively, this will be Howard's best ever season.  Aided by the emerging Jameer Nelson, look for Howard to average 24 points, 12 boards, and 3 blocks per game.  Those numbers are MVP worthy, but he will ultimately be held back by his team's lack of success relative to the Lakers and Miami.
3. Kevin Durant- Logic might have this rising superstar earning an MVP next year, but his team will still ultimately hold him back.  They are very talented, but they have holes, especially in the low post.  Though they gave the Lakers problems with their speed, LA has reloaded and gotten healthy.  I think Durant will put up similar numbers to last year, but ultimately will finish behind Kobe and Superman because his team won't take a huge leap.  Russell Westbrook's meteoric rise may also detract from the attention on Durant.
4. Rajon Rondo- The kid controls the pace of the game as well as any point guard and his confidence just broke the meter after this postseason.  He believes he is the best player in basketball and the FIBA experience will help his leadership skills and his jump shot.  If he can start to knock down a consistent 15-20 foot jumper, he will be unstoppable.  Although Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are declining, they still form a very good supporting cast that will allow Rondo to play ring leader.
5. Derrick Rose- Though he still has some refining to do (ahem, jump shot) he is getting better every second and is absolutely impossible to keep out of the lane.  The addition of Carlos Boozer will make this team leagues better in the half court.  Other Jazz imports Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer will provide the penetrating Rose with great kickout options, and Brewer will be an excellent open-court athlete for Rose to play with.  Taj Gibson is an emerging talent at forward, and although people are expecting way too much from Joakim Noah, both are very nice fits for this team.

Honorable Mention:

Lebron James- It's called Most Valuable Player.  LeBron may be the best talent in the league, but if he was injured for the year, Wade and Bosh would still have this team in the top-5 of the East.

Deron Williams- I love his game and his efficiency, but I am not sure Al Jefferson is enough to replace the production of Boozer, Korver, Wesley Matthews, and Brewer.  This leaves Williams a bit short in the win column to really challenge for this award.

Amare Stoudemire- While the Knicks will not be title threats, Amare will be the focal point of an offensive system that always scores points, and finally has some personnel (Ray Felton, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Danilo Gallinari) that can instill fear into opponents.

Carmelo Anthony- He will score close to 30 a game, as usual, but his performance in this race depends on how well his up-and-down team performs.

Dwyane Wade- Read "LeBron James."

Title Contenders:

LA Lakers- Hell, they have won the West three consecutive years and the NBA Championship the last two.  Their weaknesses last year were a lack of health and a shaky bench.  Every Laker besides Lamar Odom is recuperating this summer and should be at full strength to start the season.  Also, this team will likely take the approach of coasting through the regular season to make sure guys are rested and healthy for the postseason.  Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, and the re-signed Shannon Brown will join Lamar Odom to create an experienced, talented, versatile, and solid bench crew.  All these players could start for other teams, and they all have postseason—some even Championship—experience.  Look for Kobe, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, and Derek Fisher to receive a few less minutes per game to keep them extra fresh.  LA is now the deepest team in hoops, and along with Miami, is also the most talented. 

Miami Heat- Everyone is curious about how this is going to work.  Fortunately, this team will be able to coast through the regular season on talent while they are still figuring out roles and establishing chemistry.  In terms of top level talent, no team beats the Heat, but questions remain about how strong they will be on the boards and how well their supporting cast will perform over the course of a full season and a long playoff run.  They may rack up 60-65 regular season wins overwhelming teams with their offensive firepower, but in the playoffs, teams like the Celtics, Magic, and Bulls will challenge the Heat's weaknesses: inside strength, depth, and chemistry.  I really hope we get to see Boston vs. the Heat in the Easter Conference Final; that would be a wonderful matchup. 

Boston- It's funny that the minute the Lakers won the title people were claiming the Celtics' window had closed.  I don't believe that for one second.  Rondo is going to be a superstar and the big three now plays a complementary role to him.  Jermaine O'Neal and Shaquille O'Neal (no relation) will provide production in the paint as they split time at center and wait for Kendrick Perkins to return from injury.  My worry is that once Perkins does come back, how do the C's split time between Big Baby, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaq, and Perkins?  The latter three are essentially variations of the same player, so somebody is going to be the odd man out, and there is a huge amount of ego on this team.  Still, Boston has Doc Rivers, a great system, and lots of talent.  This team will be right there again. 

Dallas Mavericks- Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler give the Mavs power, length, and athleticism like they have never had at center during the Dirk Nowitzki era.  They will need those erasers at the basket as Jason Kidd and Dirk are another year older.  Nowitski and Caron Butler form a very good 1-2 scoring punch assisted by a host of very nice complementary scorers in Shawn Marion, Roddy Beaubois, and Jason Terry.  The issues with Dallas again will be mental toughness, defense, and if their whole can be greater than the sum of their impressive parts. 

Oklahoma City/Orlando Magic:  I know I'm hedging, but these teams seem so close to me.

The Thunder have two guys in Westbrook and Durant that can both be top-10 players in the league within a year (Durant already is).  Jeff Green is a very good, steady player in a Lamar Odom mold, and James Harden is going to be a very good all-around player who can score twenty when he needs to.  Cole Aldrich helps their size problem, but they still don't have a go-to pivot option, and they are still undersized overall.

The Magic are only this high because Dwight Howard is such a difficult matchup for anybody in the league.  He is bigger, stronger, and more athletic than any other center and commands unusual attention.  Nelson is not a star but he is a good player.  Lewis is making far too much money but does shoot the three well.  Carter will score the ball but is a defensive liability.  Marcin Gortat should get more time playing alongside Howard.  All in all, the Magic have done nothing to make me think they are ready to take the next step, but Howard will keep them an elite team.  If they can deal for Chris Paul though, I will have to seriously reassess.