Inevitability and Albert Pujols

This may strike you as a bit of a mixed message seeing as I just ripped baseball to its core in my last article, but now I have to heap praise upon one of the game's most brilliant singular talents.  This is what the game is still good for, what makes the game watchable even when your team is being lapped by the competition and the doldrums of summer baseball are at their most monotonous.

Numbers are the game's saving grace and are what makes the sport compelling despite itself.  I may not be able to watch an entire game, but I will still check a box score to see what kind of day my favorite player had.  And in the history of baseball, certainly the recent history, nobody's numbers have been so mechanically consistent, so surreally productive, and so seemingly effortless to put up as Albert Pujols'.  His 400^th career home run is a landmark in baseball's historical landscape that we can all recognize, a good stopping place along the trail for us to sit and reflect on what we have seen and what may lie ahead.

Admiration for No. 400

As of August 27, Pujols' numbers are as follows: .321 batting average, 35 home runs, 93 RBI.  In the National League his batting average registers as second best, and in the latter two categories (homers and RBI) he leads the league.  This is clearly a wonderful statistical season, but the thing about Pujols is that this type of stat line, this place atop the leader boards in every category is, by his standards, simply average.  Nothing less is expected by Pujols and all fans of baseball.  Pujols is baseball's Roger Federer or Tiger Woods, yet because baseball is not an individual sport, Pujols is not the champion that Woods or Federer is despite his production as nothing less than the best of all time.

Through his first nine seasons Pujols has averaged (the word "average" here seems to imply something run of the mill, but in this case it is purely mathematical, and the numbers are dazzling) 41 home runs per season, a .333 batting average, and 124 RBI.  Those numbers standing alone could equal one of the best single seasons in baseball history; a stat line like that can make a powerful MVP argument in any year.

In terms of accolades Pujols is again king, although it seems he should have even more trophies adorning his mantle than he already does.  He has won the Silver Slugger Award (given to the best hitter at each position) five times.  He was won three National League MVP awards.  In the years that Pujols has not won the MVP he has finished 2^nd three times, 3^rd once, 4^th once, and 9^th once.  This means that in six out of nine years he has been considered one of the top two best players in his league, and every other year he was damn close.

Pujols may lay claim to yet another MVP this year, and he probably should.  The only danger is the personal ego of MVP voters who like to be seen as going against the grain, and seem to have disdain for dishing the award out to the same person over and over again.  Whether fair or not, Pujols' MVP chances will also depend upon his team's success.  If the Cardinals can beat out the Reds for the NL Central crown, then Pujols' MVP stock improves dramatically.

Prince Albert's got Pop

Whether or not Pujols wins the MVP award this year is largely irrelevant for the purposes of historical analysis.  He already has three and more will likely come at some point in his career.  What matters most now is whether Pujols can duplicate what he has done for the first decade of his career over his second decade of major league play.  Pujols is projected to end this season with 44 home runs, which puts him at 410 for his career.  He will be 31-years-old next year and likely will have 3-4 years of maximum prime production left.  Let's say he average 40 bombs for the next four years.  That would put him at a career mark of 570 long distance calls.  Then let's allow for a slight decline.  Say over the following three years he averages 30 home runs per year.  That would put King Albert at 660 blasts for his career and at age 37-38 he would likely be near the end of the road.  However, Pujols has been a true iron man and has had a career largely free of serious injury.  In addition he has a natural, smooth, and compact swing which allows him to generate power easily.  Perhaps to conclude his career he moves to the AL in order to DH for a team.  Let's say Albert plays to the age of 41, and hits 25 homers per year for his final three seasons.  That may be asking a lot, but he may also have an outlier season where he blasts 60 somewhere along the way.  If Pujols could produce according to these averages, he would hang up his cleats with 735 career home runs.   That would put him smack in between Ruth and Hank Aaron, good enough for second all-time on the home run list.  Note: Barry Bonds doesn't count… cheater.

We also need to understand the era in which Pujols is putting these numbers up.  This is an era where hitters typically face three or four pitchers every day.  That means adjustments, different pitches, and different styles.  Preparing to face four major league pitchers is infinitely more difficult than getting four at-bats against the same guy, which used to be the case before baseball became so specialized.  In addition, Pujols has likely faced numerous pitchers using performance enhancing drugs, which again makes things tougher.

The reason I put this article together is because 1) It is fun to think about numbers in a historical perspective and 2) it helps us understand just how good Pujols is, and hopefully helps us appreciate what is happening before our very eyes.

Pujols is the easiest superstar athlete to take for granted because his production never falters, he never draws attention to himself, and because he plays baseball.  His nickname, "The Machine," could not be more appropriate.  Yet we can't, as fans, be drawn into the line of thinking where we forget the magnitude of his accomplishments because of his hypnotic consistency.  We need to appreciate every swing, every two-for-four day at the plate, and every home run that brings us closer to watching history's greatest hitter.

--from Adam

(first image from espn.com, second image from johnnyarchive.mlblogs.com)