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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

September 14, 2010

NFL Opening Weekend Game Notes

Bears over Lions

Adam: -Calvin Johnson, on behalf of the NFL we are all sorry.  The Lions should have won that game even though they were dominated in total yards.  More hard luck, Matthew Stafford may be out for a while.

Eric: -If it looks like a touchdown, it should be a touchdown, and the Bears should have lost this game.  I guess you can't set the ball down after you catch it.  That's ridiculous refs.
-A long stretch of this game was marked by complete offensive ineptitude on both sides.  After Stafford got knocked out and didn't come back for the second half, both teams traded multiple possessions where the Lions couldn't move the ball out from their own ten and the Bears couldn't move it past the Lions' forty, just punting it back and forth.
-The Lions had some rhythm early on, but that completely disintegrated when Shaun Hill entered the game.  The announcers mentioned how Stafford got about eighty percent of the snaps in preparation for the season.  This is what needs to happen with a young quarterback, but if Stafford goes down, it leaves Detroit with a less-than-prepared second option.  Things could not have gone much worse for the Lions to start the season.
-Matt Forte had a big game with over 200 yards of total offense and is looking to rebound this season from a lackluster 2009 campaign.

Giants over Panthers

A: -The Giants play a complete game to win, looking to have a deep and talented receiving corps.  The Panthers just don’t have the passing game to keep up.

E: -The Eli Manning-to-Hakeem Nicks show was all it took to pull out a victory in the new stadium over Carolina.
-With the limited options on offense, the Panthers' defense must carry the weight if they want to beat some teams other than the Buccaneers this season, and they did not show up today.

Seahawks over 49ers

A: -Oh, the 49ers.  This is the year right?  Damnit.  The 49ers get into the red zone four times in the first half, including the 1-yard line twice, and only come away with six points.  Bigger problem, Alex Smith is completely unable to weather the storm.  Playing quarterback is about handling adversity, and he can’t.  Also, he misses Moran Norris in the end zone who was more wide open than a window in mid-August.

E: -I could see Pete Carroll's first year turning out like Josh McDaniels' first year with Denver (fast start and then fade) because of Carroll's optimism being gradually overwhelmed by the Seahawks' overall lack of talent.  You never know what will happen in the NFC West though.
-The 49ers will be better than they showed this Sunday.  Their offense needs to start with Frank Gore, and they could not get him going at all.

Buccaneers over Browns

A: -The Buccaneers have a winning record.  Take a picture Tampa fans; it won’t last long.

E: -Cleveland was an absolutely terrible team last year but they were able to pull together and win their last four games relying on the strength of their running game, pounding the rock with Jerome Harrison.  In this game after getting a 14-3 lead, it seemed they were more content relying on the aging interceptions king Jake Delhomme than running with Harrison, and then the Bucs got back in it.
-Props to Adam who practically nailed this game in his Week 1 prediction.

Texans over Colts

A: -The Texans get the monkey off their back despite Peyton Manning throwing for 300 more yards than Matt Schaub.  If the Texans can run anything like they did Sunday, they can be a Super Bowl threat.  Also, when was the last time the Colts were alone in last place in the AFC South?  This will be a tough division this year.

E: -The Houston Texans' biggest weakness from a season ago was their lack of a consistent running attack, and it is fitting that the victory in this contest comes behind Arian Foster's massive game on the ground.  After years of coming up short on playoff runs, something needed to change in Houston.  Perhaps this newfound confidence rushing will be their spark towards the first postseason appearance in franchise history.
-It is a real shame that Bob Sanders cannot stay healthy.  Sanders is one of the best defensive players in the entire league, yet he gets hurt in this one on the Texans' first drive.  Hopefully he will not be out long, though early indications do not look like that will be the case.

Dolphins over Bills

A: -Memo to Trent Edwards: when running the two minute drill, the idea is to pass the ball, not take multiple sacks.

E: -Neither team was trying too hard to win this one.  Emerging talent Chad Henne still needs work and the Bills need to find their identity.  I have a hint for you Chan Gailey: CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson > Trent Edwards

Patriots over Bengals

A: -The Patriots make a statement to their doubters and Tom Brady looks great.  The Bengals looked shell-shocked to start the game but did show the potential of their new playmakers.

E: -Cincinnati came out flat in this game and could not recover.  The only rhythm they could generate on offense came out of the hurry-up.
-It was good to see Wes Welker running around making plays, remarkable recovery from an ACL tear.

Jaguars over Broncos

A: -The Jaguars outlast Broncos in a strange game between two undermanned rosters.

E: -Denver's most dangerous weapon on either side of the ball, Elvis Dumervil, being out hurts the Broncos tremendously.
-Tim Tebow's return to Florida was incredibly underwhelming, two carries for two yards.

Steelers over Falcons

A: -Atlanta Falcons, you have to be able to win at Pittsburgh against the third-string QB.  That offense should score more than nine points no matter who they play.  For the Steelers, just win.
 
E: -Defense was the story for Pittsburgh, hanging on long enough to pull out a victory for Dennis Dixon.

Titans over Raiders

A: -The Titans show their formula: Vince Young makes enough plays between his arm and legs and Chris Johnson is superb.  Raiders, your sleeper status has been revoked.  Awful.
 
E: -CJ2K keeps rolling and Young has what it takes to beat the Raiders.

Cardinals over Rams

A: -Sam Bradford nearly leads Rams to a victory over the Cardinals, and Derek Anderson looks average. 

E: -Bradford makes a solid but not spectacular NFL debut in the loss, going 32/55 for 253 yards with one touchdown and three picks.
-In a game where the Cardinals should have easily walked away with a victory, they gave the Rams way more hope than they ever should have gotten, but such is life for a team in flux like Arizona.

Packers over Eagles

A: -The Packers escape with a win, but the story is Michael Vick, who looked like his old self scrambling all over the place and making plays.  QB controversy anyone?

E: -This game was marked by sloppy execution for both offenses through much of the first half, though the Packers were able to get it going late in the second quarter and rode that momentum through halftime to a strong start in the second half.  The air was taken out of their sails however with Vick coming in and running around like it was 2006.
-Packers running back Ryan Grant injured his ankle in this one and will be out for the rest of the season.  Replacing the production of a 1200-yard rusher will be key for the Packers' success moving forward.

Washington over Dallas

A: -The Cowboys and Redskins play an ugly game, and Alex Barron is the worst offensive lineman in the world.  Although he didn’t play great, Donovan McNabb gets Washington a win in the type of game they would have lost in years past.

E: -Dallas' offense was out of sync throughout the preseason and continued to look lackadaisical against Washington.  They were desperately trying to get Dez Bryant involved in the offense, sometimes to the detriment of their offensive rhythm.  I believe the Cowboys could be one of the fiercest rushing teams in the league with Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice splitting carries, but Jerry Jones loves Tony Romo too much to quit throwing the ball.
-The Redskins could have a scary defense were someone to pull the hundred million dollar stick out of Albert Haynesworth's ass.  We saw a lot of good plays from the linebacking corps, LaRon Landry, and DeAngelo Hall.

Ravens over Jets

A: -The Jets and Ravens played the exact type of game we all expected.  New York must be concerned with converting only one third down all night; Mark Sanchez was average.  Darelle Revis looked as good as ever.

E: -In a characteristically defensive game, one of the biggest stories is the Jets' losing Kris Jenkins for the year to a torn ACL.  As age has caught up with Jenkins, he misses more and more of each season to injuryso the Jets may be used to replacing him in the lineupbut when he is healthy, he is one of the better nose guards in the game.

Chiefs over Chargers

A: -The Chiefs get a huge division win and the Chargers roll out of bed late to start the season again.  The Chiefs' rookies looked great.  Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas are incredible athletes and will be stars in the return game, Tony Moeaki snags a touchdown grab, and Eric Berry struggled defending Antonio Gates but tackled well.  Add Jamaal Charles, and this team has some elite playmakers.

E
: -Along with a goal line stand, strong special teams play was the name of the game for the Chiefs.  This comes as no surprise in Dante Hall's former stomping grounds.
-KC is a very young team and they will certainly have their ups and downs all year.  This game was obviously one of the "ups" for them.
-The Chargers still need to get right, especially on defense.  They are 0-2 in their last two games, this one and a first-round exit from the playoffs last January.

September 10, 2010

Overreaction Friday: What We Learned from Last Night’s Opener

It’s that special time when I deduce what will happen for this entire season by watching one football game in September.  But in all sincerity, there are some things that can be said about last night’s Vikings–Saints game that have relevance moving forward.
  1. The Saints' offensive line is either that damn good or the Vikings' defensive line is not quite what it was last year.  The Saints decided to air it out in the first half, so you would think Jared Allen would be on the lips of the broadcasters all night, but we hardly heard his name mentioned.  I don’t think I heard them call out "Kevin Williams" either.  In the second half the Saints pounded the ball on the ground, utilizing a cutback run where the offensive line moved the Williams wall to one side allowing the runningback to cut the other direction for a big gain.  The Saints do have a great offensive line, but still, nobody is supposed to run against the Vikings.  Pierre Thomas gained 71 yards on the ground, virtually all in the second half.  Usually the Vikings don’t allow close to that amount of yardage in one game.  Perhaps 37-year-old Pat Williams is wearing down, or it could be a one game aberration. 
  2. Sean Payton is a much better coach than Brad Childress.  I expected the Saints to come up blitzing like crazy, but for most of the night they rushed three or four guys and dropped the rest into coverage.  The Vikings could not adjust to this.  Childress even said after the game that the Vikings, “didn’t have an answer” to the Saints' scheme.  Well Chilly, that is your job, to make adjustments and find an answer.
  3. Brett Favre needed training camp and the preseason.  Sure, the Vikings may just need some time to get all on the same page, but a team can’t afford to work its way into a rhythm once the games count for real.  Favre was a bit off and the Vikings just didn’t have the belief that they could move the ball up and down the field. 
  4. The Vikings miss Sidney Rice.  Percy Harvin operates best out of the slot because of his quickness, but he struggles as an outside receiver.  Rice bailed Favre out of a lot of situations last year, and made all the other recievers better.  Favre is still looking for a go-to guy, and if that guy is Visanthe Shiancoe, the Vikings are in trouble.
This was not a beautiful game by any means, but it was real football damnit and I loved every second.   The Vikings have to be concerned because they are a team that appears to be looking for answers, and their upcoming schedule will not lend itself to self-discovery.  In their next six games they play the Jets, Packers, and Patriots on the road, and the Dolphins and Cowboys at home.  They could be in deep trouble early in the season if they don’t figure out a better gameplan.

--from Adam

September 9, 2010

Season Kickoff: Vikings-Saints Live Blog

The Minnesota Vikings are coming back to New Orleans eight months after handing the Saints the NFC Championship game looking for revenge.  The Saints wish to show that they're not about to experience any Super Bowl hangover.  This is a real test for them coming already in week one.

And I'll be watching.  I've seen live journals of games on other sites and I figured I try my hand at it tonight.

Pre-Game

Paraphrasing from Dungy, "Favre knows the Saints will be blitzing him."
Look for the Vikings to throw a lot of quick passes.  Hopefully this will limit Favre rolling out late and then throwing across his body, cough, cough.


1st Quarter


15:00 - New Orleans institution Harry Connick Jr. marches in with the Saints.  And Andrea Kramer's on Twitter!


15:00 - "Nothing like a labor statement to start a season"  I cannot abide no football in 2011.  Get it done Goodell!


15:00 - Kickoff baby!


14:40 - A big play starts it, Marques Colston over the middle for 27 yards.


13:35 - Jerad Allen, Culinary Academy


12:56 - Touchdown, Brees to Devery Henderson, quick quick quick drive, five plays to paydirt, the Vikings weren't ready for New Orleans' hurry-up look


12:56 - How does Chilly answer?


12:56 - Who steps up in Sidney Rice's absence?


11:33 - Three and out for the Vikes


10:00 - Every quarterback who ever scrambled is learning from Brett Favre, according to Al Michaels.


9:26 - Two failed screen passes to start the drive backed up the Saints, three and out.


8:00 - If this drive leads to points, that is a key play: Peterson getting held up behind the line but still making a first down.


6:42 - Childress called a draw play and 2nd-and-forever.  Hooda thunk?


5:27 - Penalties stall the Vikings' second drive, but the Saints are left with poor field position.  Good punt Kluwe.


4:33 - Pretty little floater to Robert Meachem down the sideline after a potential botched play


3:30 - Forget your jock strap Ray Edwards?


1:25 - The Vikings are getting no pressure on Brees.  That will need to change if Minnesota wants to win this game.


0:48 - Spoke too soon... sack Greenway


0:00 - Vikings 0, Saints 7
 

2nd Quarter

13:52 - I've never been a huge fan of Peterson catching balls out of the backfield, but he's made a couple nice plays tonight.


9:18 - Favre has no completions to his wide receivers yet, thanks Cris Collinsworth


6:16 - The Vikings' game plan so far: run, run, run.  I also haven't seen the Saints bring as much pressure as I was expecting.


5:32 - It looks it lulled Favre into a false sense of security; the pressure worked on third down after a defensive timeout.


5:28 - Ryan Longwell field goal from 41: Vikings 3, Saints 7


3:59 - That could've been a huge interception Asher Allen.


3:59 - 50 yards of field position with that punt


2:27 - Pressure creates Favre's first interception of the night


1:24 - The Saints cannot convert; Garrett Hartley misses a 46-yard field goal.


0:51 - I've seen this many times; Brett Farve loves the two minute drill.


0:34 - Touchdown - Brett Favre to Visanthe Shiancoe for 20 yards, the extra point is blocked, Vikings 9, Saints 7


H
alftime: Vikings 9, Saints 7

I think the Saints' complete inability to establish any sort of running game does not bode well for them down the stretch.  If they can continue to pressure Favre, their defense should hold up better than it did at the end of the half.


For the Vikings, I don't think it's a massive problem in this particular game, but with only two of Favre's eleven first half completions going to wide receivers, it shows they are still looking for someone to replace Sidney Rice's presence on the outside.  I will also say though that that could stem from the Vikings' plan for short, quick passes not allowing the time for receivers to do their work.


3
rd Quarter

1
5:00 - Surprise onside?

1
2:56 - Three and out to start for the Vikings, we have a surprisingly defensive game after watching the Saints score in just five plays to start.

10:52 - I'm seeing some good run plays from the Saints right now.  One of the underrated strengths (with Brees getting so much ink and because they didn't have any one guy who was the main running back) for the Saints last year was their running game.


6:13 - Ten-play drives kill a defense.  This one's capped off by a 1-yard Pierre Thomas touchdown plunge.  Vikings 9, Saints 14


5:18 - Get your feet in Malcolm Jenkins.


5:13 - The Vikings are lucky they're punting right now.


3:21 - Three solid plays from the Vikings defense cause three and out: Fat Pat Williams chases down Pierre Thomas--that's a sight--then two solid tackles by Jamarca Sanford and Ben Leber.


2:13 - Collinsworth's been talking about Sedrick Ellis all night and now he gets the sack.  Whenever we mention a defensive lineman by name, he must be doing something right.  Then comes another Vikings' three and out.


0:36 - Since the Saints' touchdown drive, neither team has generated any offense.


0:00 - Vikings 9, Saints 14


4th Quarter


14:51 - Side note: I'm glad Chilly ditched the beard and brought back the mustache.


14:43 - Bryant McKinnie gets carted to the locker room.  That's a big loss, literally and figuratively.


9:10 - After a dropped touchdown catch from Meachem comes a field goal attempt and Garrett Hartley misses again.


8:12 - Greg Camarillo makes his first catch as a Viking.  I've always thought he's a good player, but I just don't know what his role is on this team with Percy Harvin already established as the main slot receiver.  Cris Collinsworth loves him because he's a white wide receiver.


3:42 - I love watching the four minute drill: when you have a lead and have the ball with about four minutes left, and you just drain clock.  This is an area of strength for elite teams.


1:45 - The Saints are in victory formation.


0:00 - Saints win!  The stories of the second half are Brett Favre falling flat and the Saints' renewed commitment to the running game.


0:00 - Welcome back football.  I've missed you so.


Final: Vikings 9, Saints 14


-
-from Eric

Week 1 Pick-Down

We here at Hill 364 Sports are about to enter a friendly competition to judge our prognosticating abilities.  Our subject: the 2010 NFL season.  We'll each be submitting our picks to the NFL's matchups each week and I'll keep a running tally of both of our respective records.  To make competition more interesting, we'll assign point values to each matchup.  A correct pick in the regular season will be worth one point.  That's all well and good, but in the postseason, we'll need to up the stakes.  In the first two rounds of the playoffs, each correct pick will be worth two points, a correct pick in the Conference Championship round will be worth four points, and a correct Super Bowl pick will be worth eight.  To add a wrinkle though, if you pick an underdog (meaning lower seed in the first three rounds, then we'll go by the oddsmakers when we get to Dallas) in any playoff game and are correct, you'll double the pick's point value.  If you pick an underdog and are incorrect, you'll lose the original value of the pick.

Now that we have that out of the way, here are our Week 1 Picks:

MatchupAdam's Pick Eric's Pick
Vikings at Saints
Saints
Vikings
Dolphins at Bills
Dolphins
Dolphins
Lions at Bears
Lions
Lions
Raiders at Titans
Titans
Titans
Bengals at Patriots
Bengals
Patriots
Panthers at Giants
Giants
Giants
Falcons at Steelers
Falcons
Falcons
Browns at Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Browns
Broncos at Jaguars
Jaguars
Broncos
Colts at Texans
Colts
Colts
Cardinals at Rams
Rams
Cardinals
Packers at Eagles
Packers
Packers
49ers at Seahawks
49ers
49ers
Cowboys at Redskins
Cowboys
Cowboys
Ravens at Jets
Jets
Ravens
Chargers at Chiefs
Chargers
Chargers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
The Saints may experience a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but Brett Favre is still getting into the swing of things and Gregg Williams will be bringing the blitz all day to test #4's ankle.  The Saints are a tough matchup for the Vikings because they might have the only offensive line in the league that can go toe-to-toe with Jared Allen and the Williams boys.  I think the Saints will score plenty of points with the Vikings still working out the kinks.
Prediction: Saints 31 - Vikings 24

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are better than the Bills but week one on the road is not easy for any team.  Still, I think the Dolphins know who they are and will get big plays from Brandon Marshall.  The Bills are adjusting to a new coach and suffer from a lack of great personnel.  Look for Miami to pound the run and throw the deep ball with equal success.
Prediction: Dolphins 24 - Bills 16

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
These two teams will likely be battling for third place all season in the NFC North.  I think they are closer in talent than most people think, but the Lions have been a terrible road team over the past decade.  I have a sneaking suspicion that Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are ready for primetime and the Lions defense will be much improved.  It's a toss-up here but I'll go out on a limb.
Prediction: Lions 23 - Bears 17

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Two teams matchup here that are really tough to handicap.  Will Vince Young be the effective, just-win player we saw last year or Mr. Meltdown from years past?  How much better will Jason Campbell make the Raiders?  Will Darren McFadden ever reach his potential?  Overall, I think the Titans are better coached and have a superstar in Chris Johnson.  The Raiders will be better, but they won't be the better team on this day.
Prediction: Titans 20 - Raiders 13

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
The Bengals' passing game may be the most improved single unit of any in the league.  Jermaine Gresham and Terrell Owens add two dynamic threats to this offense, and don't sleep on Jordan Shipley.  Wes Welker won't be at full strength for the Pats and the Bengals have the best corner duo in football with Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall.  The New England defense is still green and will have trouble slowing Cedric Benson, Carson Palmer, and an array of receiving threats.  I like the Patriots this year, but not in this game.
Prediction: Bengals 30 - Patriots 24

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Two more enigmatic teams head into the year.  I just have to go with the better quarterback and the home team in this game, although the Panthers' running attack will keep it close.
Prediction: Giants 17 - Panthers 14

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
If the Falcons really want to be players this year, they must win this game.  With no Big Ben, the Falcons have the clear edge in the QB comparison.  Still, this could be a tough matchup with Pittsburgh's tenacious defense.  I will give the slight nod to Matt Ryan and company.
Prediction: Falcons 23 - Steelers 16

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here we have a scene from Raiders of the Lost Ark: The avert your eyes bowl!  Two bad teams duke it out for the rights to a top-5 draft pick next year.  Don't worry boys, there's room for both of you.  I think Josh Freeman is better than Jake Delhomme and the Bucs at home will make just enough plays to win.
Prediction: Bucs 17 - Browns 13

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Two below average teams matchup here.  Neither team is explosive offensively and neither defense scares you.  I'll give it to MJD and the home team.
Prediction: Jags 21 - Broncos 12

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
It wouldn't be the AFC South if the Colts weren't beating Houston.  The Texans have been close the last few years but can't seem to get over the hump.  I'm riding with Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders in a shootout.
Prediction: Colts 30 - Texans 27

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Last year it would have been a joke to say the Rams had a better QB than the Cardinals.  Now that is the reality as Sam Bradford will battle Derek Anderson.  The Rams have more holes overall than the Cards, but they are playing at home and should have an energized crowd with the hope of a new beginning.  Call me nuts, but I'm going with the Gateway City.
Prediction: Rams 20 - Cardinals 17

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay wore the dark horse label coming into last year and should now be comfortable in the role of favorite after last year's playoff run.  Aaron Rodgers is as good as it gets and the defense is solid.  The Eagles are explosive but young and inexperienced.  I'll take the Pack to win the turnover battle and the game.
Prediction: Packers 34 - Eagles 23

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Most pundits are picking the 49ers to win the division by default.  The Seahawks are a bit of a mystery and a lot will depend on Matt Hasselbeck's health and level of play.  Qwest Field is a tough place for visiting teams and the 49ers start two rookie offensive lineman.  Still, I think the 49ers' defense and overall talent will be enough to overcome the undermanned Seahawks.
Prediction: 49ers 23 - Seattle 17

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
The Cowboys are the better team, plain and simple.  Donovan McNabb will play, but he's a bit gimpy and the Redskins have had a lot of distractions.
Prediction: Cowboys 27 - Redskins 17

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Revis Island is up and running and the Jets defense will be very tough again.  The Ravens will have a good defense and an improved offense.  I think these are both playoff teams, but I will give the nod to the Jets here because Ed Reed won't be playing.
Prediction: Jets 17 - Ravens 16

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead is tough and the Chiefs should be better, but they are still leagues behind the Bolts in talent.  Gimme the Chargers.
Prediction: Chargers 30 - Chiefs 20

September 4, 2010

Internet Watch #4

Here we have some more good coverage of Carmelo Anthony, his prospects as a player and where he might go.

Drew Cannon theorizes on how so many elite basketball talents can slip through the cracks of high-major basketball programs' recruiting and go on to star on mid-major bracket busters: positions.

Miami Heat player Da'Sean Butler writes a touching children's story via Twitter.

In praise of Mr. Slam: Yuniesky Betancourt 

Cleveland Indian Shin-Soo Choo gets an ultimatum from the South Korean government: win a gold medal or you're joining the military.

So the Matt Leinart days are over in Arizona.  What happened?

Separate looks show the Chicago Bears as a team on the brink of collapse and how they got there.

From the Miami Herald comes an interesting look at Eric Mangini.

The attack will be ridiculous for AC Milan with Ronaldinho, Pato, Robinho, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

And finally, everybody loves sweet pappy Johnson.