Week 1 Pick-Down

We here at Hill 364 Sports are about to enter a friendly competition to judge our prognosticating abilities.  Our subject: the 2010 NFL season.  We'll each be submitting our picks to the NFL's matchups each week and I'll keep a running tally of both of our respective records.  To make competition more interesting, we'll assign point values to each matchup.  A correct pick in the regular season will be worth one point.  That's all well and good, but in the postseason, we'll need to up the stakes.  In the first two rounds of the playoffs, each correct pick will be worth two points, a correct pick in the Conference Championship round will be worth four points, and a correct Super Bowl pick will be worth eight.  To add a wrinkle though, if you pick an underdog (meaning lower seed in the first three rounds, then we'll go by the oddsmakers when we get to Dallas) in any playoff game and are correct, you'll double the pick's point value.  If you pick an underdog and are incorrect, you'll lose the original value of the pick.

Now that we have that out of the way, here are our Week 1 Picks:

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Vikings at Saints	Saints	Vikings
Dolphins at Bills	Dolphins	Dolphins
Lions at Bears	Lions	Lions
Raiders at Titans	Titans	Titans
Bengals at Patriots	Bengals	Patriots
Panthers at Giants	Giants	Giants
Falcons at Steelers	Falcons	Falcons
Browns at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Browns
Broncos at Jaguars	Jaguars	Broncos
Colts at Texans	Colts	Colts
Cardinals at Rams	Rams	Cardinals
Packers at Eagles	Packers	Packers
49ers at Seahawks	49ers	49ers
Cowboys at Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys
Ravens at Jets	Jets	Ravens
Chargers at Chiefs	Chargers	Chargers

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The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The Saints may experience a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but Brett Favre is still getting into the swing of things and Gregg Williams will be bringing the blitz all day to test #4's ankle.  The Saints are a tough matchup for the Vikings because they might have the only offensive line in the league that can go toe-to-toe with Jared Allen and the Williams boys.  I think the Saints will score plenty of points with the Vikings still working out the kinks.

Prediction: Saints 31 - Vikings 24

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins are better than the Bills but week one on the road is not easy for any team.  Still, I think the Dolphins know who they are and will get big plays from Brandon Marshall.  The Bills are adjusting to a new coach and suffer from a lack of great personnel.  Look for Miami to pound the run and throw the deep ball with equal success.

Prediction: Dolphins 24 - Bills 16

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

These two teams will likely be battling for third place all season in the NFC North.  I think they are closer in talent than most people think, but the Lions have been a terrible road team over the past decade.  I have a sneaking suspicion that Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are ready for primetime and the Lions defense will be much improved.  It's a toss-up here but I'll go out on a limb.

Prediction: Lions 23 - Bears 17

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans

Two teams matchup here that are really tough to handicap.  Will Vince Young be the effective, just-win player we saw last year or Mr. Meltdown from years past?  How much better will Jason Campbell make the Raiders?  Will Darren McFadden ever reach his potential?  Overall, I think the Titans are better coached and have a superstar in Chris Johnson.  The Raiders will be better, but they won't be the better team on this day.

Prediction: Titans 20 - Raiders 13

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

The Bengals' passing game may be the most improved single unit of any in the league.  Jermaine Gresham and Terrell Owens add two dynamic threats to this offense, and don't sleep on Jordan Shipley.  Wes Welker won't be at full strength for the Pats and the Bengals have the best corner duo in football with Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall.  The New England defense is still green and will have trouble slowing Cedric Benson, Carson Palmer, and an array of receiving threats.  I like the Patriots this year, but not in this game.

Prediction: Bengals 30 - Patriots 24

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants

Two more enigmatic teams head into the year.  I just have to go with the better quarterback and the home team in this game, although the Panthers' running attack will keep it close.

Prediction: Giants 17 - Panthers 14

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Falcons really want to be players this year, they must win this game.  With no Big Ben, the Falcons have the clear edge in the QB comparison.  Still, this could be a tough matchup with Pittsburgh's tenacious defense.  I will give the slight nod to Matt Ryan and company.

Prediction: Falcons 23 - Steelers 16

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Here we have a scene from Raiders of the Lost Ark: The avert your eyes bowl!  Two bad teams duke it out for the rights to a top-5 draft pick next year.  Don't worry boys, there's room for both of you.  I think Josh Freeman is better than Jake Delhomme and the Bucs at home will make just enough plays to win.

Prediction: Bucs 17 - Browns 13

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

Two below average teams matchup here.  Neither team is explosive offensively and neither defense scares you.  I'll give it to MJD and the home team.

Prediction: Jags 21 - Broncos 12

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

It wouldn't be the AFC South if the Colts weren't beating Houston.  The Texans have been close the last few years but can't seem to get over the hump.  I'm riding with Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders in a shootout.

Prediction: Colts 30 - Texans 27

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Last year it would have been a joke to say the Rams had a better QB than the Cardinals.  Now that is the reality as Sam Bradford will battle Derek Anderson.  The Rams have more holes overall than the Cards, but they are playing at home and should have an energized crowd with the hope of a new beginning.  Call me nuts, but I'm going with the Gateway City.

Prediction: Rams 20 - Cardinals 17

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay wore the dark horse label coming into last year and should now be comfortable in the role of favorite after last year's playoff run.  Aaron Rodgers is as good as it gets and the defense is solid.  The Eagles are explosive but young and inexperienced.  I'll take the Pack to win the turnover battle and the game.

Prediction: Packers 34 - Eagles 23

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Most pundits are picking the 49ers to win the division by default.  The Seahawks are a bit of a mystery and a lot will depend on Matt Hasselbeck's health and level of play.  Qwest Field is a tough place for visiting teams and the 49ers start two rookie offensive lineman.  Still, I think the 49ers' defense and overall talent will be enough to overcome the undermanned Seahawks.

Prediction: 49ers 23 - Seattle 17

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

The Cowboys are the better team, plain and simple.  Donovan McNabb will play, but he's a bit gimpy and the Redskins have had a lot of distractions.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 - Redskins 17

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets

Revis Island is up and running and the Jets defense will be very tough again.  The Ravens will have a good defense and an improved offense.  I think these are both playoff teams, but I will give the nod to the Jets here because Ed Reed won't be playing.

Prediction: Jets 17 - Ravens 16

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Arrowhead is tough and the Chiefs should be better, but they are still leagues behind the Bolts in talent.  Gimme the Chargers.

Prediction: Chargers 30 - Chiefs 20