Free to Frenzy

I remember when the Cleveland Cavaliers were bounced from the playoffs and the free agency tracker on SportsCenter began counting down the days to July 1^st.  Back then we were some 60 days from the most anticipated non-game event in the NBA’s history.  As the days on the free agency ticker have marched by, we are now just mere hours away from LeBron James hitting the open market and everyone has gotten increasingly excited.  Ric Bucher’s tie is sweating, Chris Broussard’s voice is starting to sound like Tim Kurkjian’s, and Jon Barry is, well, he’s still bald. 

Never has a player with this combination of personality, transcendent ability, and youth hit the free agent market, and the best part is that so many teams could potentially afford to pay him.   Joining LeBron is a crop of players that would form an incredible free agent class by itself.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire, Ray Allen, Rudy Gay, Paul Pierce, and David Lee represent a deep, multifaceted class that could completely shift the balance of power in the NBA.  Let’s start by ranking the free agents, and then assessing where they might go. 

The Franchise Cornerstones

1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade

3. Chris Bosh

Great Second Bananas:

4. Rudy Gay
5. Dirk Nowitzki
6. Joe Johnson
7. Amare Stoudemire

Players that tip the scale toward title:

8. Carlos Boozer
9. David Lee
10. Ray Allen
11. Paul Pierce

The top three require no explaining.  Rudy Gay is not the fourth-best player on this list but goes there because he is a very good player and is only twenty-three years old as opposed to Nowitzki who is thirty-two or Johnson who is thirty.  Nowitzki is still a superstar offensive player, but has demonstrated that he needs another star to get him deep in the playoffs.  Joe Johnson is overrated in my opinion but is a very good offensive player.  Still, I think on a Championship-level team he needs to be the second or maybe third best player.  Amare is a phenomenal offensive player, but he is selfish, immature, and terrible on defense.  Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom destroyed him in the postseason, and let’s face it, if a free agency super team is assembled, they will be focused on beating the Lakers and nobody else.  Boozer is a nice post player with good moves, hands, and intelligence.  He is a second star on a good team, a third star on a title contender.  David Lee is a role player that has put up good numbers on a bad Knicks team.  He is a superb rebounder.  Ray Allen goes ahead of Pierce because he will be cheaper, always fits a needed role (shooter), and I think Pierce’s body is breaking down.  Allen will have to play reduced minutes to keep his legs fresh but is still an incredibly valuable commodity. 

Now, nobody has a crystal ball so my predictions are equal parts probable and just plain wishful thinking as an NBA junkie.

Scenario 1:

Bulls get LeBron and Bosh - This is the hot rumor right now and for good reason, it makes sense and would be great to watch.  I imagine the Bulls would want to add a shooter into this mix because Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and LeBron are not exactly long range marksmen.  Let’s give the Bulls Bosh and James and say they make a sign-and-trade for Ray Allen by shipping out Deng.  The Celtics will be looking to get something for Allen and possibly get younger, and the Bulls need a shooter, so both sides get what they want.  Then the Bulls would start Rose, Allen, LeBron, Bosh, and Joakim Noah, bringing Taj Gibson (one of last year’s best rookies) off the bench.  I am not sure you would even need a bench with this ultra squad.  Still, I would be concerned about whose ego would get bruised and if there would be enough numbers available for each player.  Rose and LeBron both need the ball to be effective and neither are spot up shooters.  However, Bosh can spread the floor as a big and Ray Allen makes defenses stretch to 25 feet.  Then Noah could simply get rebounds, putbacks, and garbage points. 

If this happens then…

Heat get Johnson and Boozer - The Heat might have to sign-and-trade to make this work, but they have a lot of money, a wonderful location, and Pat Riley who would eat your children for another championship.  This team would boast a starting lineup of Mario Chalmers, Wade (who stays), Johnson, Boozer, and Jermaine O’Neal.  They might ship O’Neal or Michael Beasley for a more solid center.   This would represent the best cast Wade has ever played with, including the 2006 crew when he claimed the title with Shaq.  Chalmers is a rising player, Johnson can be counted on for twenty points a game, and Boozer is a lock for at least sixteen and ten.  This team is not quite the level of the Bulls’ super team, but it could definitely push that squad and gives Wade the ability to stay close with any team and then take over in the 4^th quarter. 

                               

Then Nowitzki, Stoudemire, and Pierce re-sign with their current teams realizing they have as good a chance at winning by staying, yet probably cannot compete with the above mega squads. 

The poor Knicks then are left with signing Rudy Gay, a great sign any other year for any other team, but the Knicks have been waiting for LeBron for 5 years, and they need a lot of help, more than Gay can do by himself.  He would form a solid young tandem with re-signee David Lee though.

Scenario 2:

Lebron and Boozer go to Miami - I think Bosh would object to being the third scoring option behind two mega stars, so instead Boozer comes to Miami and becomes perhaps the best third option in hoops.  I think people considering this scenario are misinterpreting how it would work.  Unlike what many pundits are saying, Wade does not have to have the ball to be effective.  He is a tremendous cutter, a great transition player, and gets a lot of steals off the ball to get into the open court.  Bringing in LeBron would put arguably two of the top-three players in the league on the same team, also adding Boozer, a top 25-30 player.  I think overall the Bulls team might be a bit better than this one, but if Wade and LeBron find a way to put their egos aside, this could be an all-time great team. 

Bosh to Dallas - Mark Cuban covets LeBron (BREAKING NEWS… I know.  Who doesn’t covet this man?).  But in this scenario he will be happy to piece together a sign-and-trade for Bosh, that’s the only way the Mavs will be able to afford a max salary guy.  This means that Dirk will re-sign seeking a championship opportunity.  Maybe the Mavs trade Shawn Marion, Roddy Beaubois, and Erick Dampier (expiring contract).  Then they can roll out a lineup of Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Dirk, and Bosh along with the other pieces they bring in.  This team might not be able to play defense, but they wouldn’t have to against most teams.   Still, the Lakers would give this soft front line fits in a seven game series, and Kobe is still unguardable.  Despite all the big names on this squad, I still think it only puts them in the conversation for a title and not on top of it. 

Stoudemire and Johnson to Knicks - Call me “crazy,” but I think Nash wants to win a title before he hangs it up.  So I think if those two signings happen, Nash may try to force a trade perhaps to join former teammates Stoudemire and Johnson, and former coach Mike D’Antoni.  Likely the Knicks would just offer some salary cap relief for Nash but that might be exactly what the suddenly rebuilding Suns want.  Now this becomes an absolute offensive juggernaut with a starting line of Nash, Johnson, Danilo Gallinari, Stoudemire, and the re-signed Lee.  Sound like the ’07 Suns much?  This is a lineup with 4 All Stars from a year ago and an emerging talent in Gallinari, but of course defense would be an issue.

Allen to the Lakers - If Allen was willing to sign for a mid-level exception aiming for another shot at a championship, then the Lakers would have to go after him.  He would provide the one element LA is missing, a deep threat.  That would make every other player on the team better.  I envision Odom and Allen coming off the bench together but essentially being starters, logging major minutes.  Imagine the Lakers’ top-six players: Kobe Bryant, Gasol, Ron Artest, Andrew Bynum, Odom, and Allen.   This would be another mega team; I can’t wait to see how this shakes out and to watch some mega matchups. 

Rudy Gay to the Clippers - This would be a very nice signing for the Clips.  Gay gives them a nice swing player/scorer and another young player to bolster their nice foundation.  Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Rudy Gay, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman has the look of a playoff team. 

Pierce re-signs with Celtics

Scenario 3:

Lebron, Bosh, and Dirk to the Knicks - The Knicks have thirty-seven million dollars in cap space and Dirk has stated that he will take less money to win a championship.  If this move happened the Knicks might consider moving David Lee to unclutter the front court and add a solid point guard.  But for now we will keep Lee on the team.  The trio of LeBron, Dirk, and Bosh combines three superstars—an all court threat, a big that can post and knock down the three, and another athletic post with a KG-type versatile game.  Add long bomber Gallinari and bring Lee off the bench, you have the best frontcourt in hoops. 

Wade and Boozer to the Bulls - Wade is from the Chicago area and would love to come home to win it all.  He and Rose I think fit better than Rose and LeBron.  Boozer is looking to be an add-on depending on where other stars are headed.  I again like the sign-and-trade, Deng-for-Allen deal here.  Rose, Wade, Allen, Boozer, and Noah would be a great lineup although slightly undersized. 

Rudy Gay to the Nets - The Nets were not as bad talent wise as a seventy-loss team should be.  Add Gay to this team, and with the addition of third overall pick Derrick Favors, you have something special developing.   Favors, Gay, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Brook Lopez is the type of young nucleus that could compete for a championship in 2-3 years, which would be a miraculous turnaround for this team, but don’t expect results right away. 

Joe Johnson to Clippers - This is farfetched because I doubt Johnson wants to come to this team, but the Clips have cap space and will make Joe a rich man.  He would give them another guy they can go to in the clutch and a good dose of veteran leadership.  I wonder about Baron Davis being dealt.  Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin are an exciting young duo that would benefit from the addition of a veteran All Star in Johnson. 

Pierce and Stoudemire re-sign.


--from Adam

(All images from nba.com)